Take two shots and call me in the morning

To start out with I would like to say that a lot of time is wasted in documentaries by people walking in hallways, talking on phones, or typing on computers.  I mean these aren't hard things, why do I need to watch someone do it.  The more hilarious part is that the people are trying not to laugh while doing it.

(I would like to say at the start that I am discussing the content of the video only and not information that was not contained in the video.  I personally would choose to vaccinate my children as I have seen no scientific evidence to the contrary.  However this does not have any effect on my discussion of the validity of the arguments presented.)

Anyway, so Frontline had a new video this week about vaccines.

As always I love Frontline, I don't always agree with the way they present material nor the material they leave out but in the end I feel like Frontline is in general a productive thing to watch.  This video is worth watching even though I am going to tear apart a couple of things here.  (The Wikipedia article on vaccines is here.)  The video is about people who don't want to vaccinate their kids and the reasons for it.  (Wikipedia article is here.)

I have to say, and this is a common complaint about all people throughout all time, is that people do not understand logic, statistics, and rational argument.  I don't want to specifically say person X is an idiot, I mean these are not simple topics to master however the lack of skill in these areas are causing significant problems in society.  For instance take the mom in the Frontline video from Oregon who is trying to rationalize not vaccinating her kids.  I will say that she has a valid question, 'When is the disease gone so that we can stop vaccinating against it,' however this is her justification for not vaccinating her kids: 'There hasn't been a case in X years in the United States.'  However during this time thousands of people die outside the United States.  This is an example of an illogical conclusion, this is like me saying no one ever gets hit by cars because I have never been hit by a car.  Additionally this more complicated due to the herd immunity populations in the United States has had in recent years though pockets of problems are popping up.

I also want to directly attack a common problem with cause and effect.  It is common today (and in the video this is pointed to early) that science and the benefits thereof are subdued or wrong if the discovering party makes money off the discovery.  In the video the Doctor who discovered the 'R' in the MMR vaccine was directly questioned about this.  I don't think he did any favors to himself by dodging the question however the question is stupid to begin with.  The vaccine is provided to children because the NIH, CDC, FDA, etc. say it is safe and prevents disease.  Does the profit motive matter here?  Does the fact that he made money from it mean the vaccine doesn't work?  No.  Now some people may dislike the idea of paying someone a profit on something that is 'required' for life but in reality you do this all the time, food, shelter, etc.  Don't think your landlord is a charity organization.  Luckily this was quickly glossed over as I feel like it was a general distraction.

Next we are looking at a statistical problem in the video.  The video spends a lot of time discussing the link between autism and vaccines (specifically Thimerosal and Mercury as possible culprits).  Now here is the problem, and it is stated later in the video about minute 35:00.  It is stated that parents noticed their children regress at this specific time, when the vaccine was given.  The guy was like, science can't tell us why this happened though non-scientific evidence from the parents said it happened because of the shot.  Well this is what the scientific method is for, to prove both positive or negative outcomes.  The research showed there was no or significant evidence against a link between the vaccines and autism.  I think the video states it pretty clearly that there is an average age when autism is diagnosed and that happens to be during the time that a lot of vaccines are given.  Correlation does not equal causation, it is that simple, you have to prove causation (and correlation).

I feel like a lot of problems and poor communications could be cleared by a more effective understanding of these principals of rationality, logic, and statistics.  It seems pretty difficult to have a functioning society without these and so many people lack them.  I feel especially blessed that I have a solid understanding of those but it also took many years to develop a good grasp of any of them.

So now I will discuss briefly (after tearing into the anti-vaccine camp) the positive points they made.  Yes, it is important that these concerns are studied.  Yes, it is important that we spend resources to identify problems.  Yes, (my opinion is) you should have choice in determining what happens to your children, however, I do not feel you should assume you can know everything just because 'you read something'.  I would say challenge your doctor by asking important questions however remember to practice intellectualism and defer to the person with the most expertise in the area.  It is sad when children have bad things happen to them but we need to as parents, and as a society look at the problem through a scientific lens and find out what the real cause of the problem is, half-guesses and assumed omnipotence are counter-productive.

(I strongly suggest watching the video and surfing through the Wikipedia articles as the discussion is very interesting.  I would also add the discussion on the Frontline website is interesting.  It is obvious that not all information could be presented in 55 minutes and some people bring up valid points and additional information.  I think both sides should remember that we are all looking for the answer we just may have different paths to get there.)